An Introduction to Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting or weather prediction id achieved by the process involving future estimation of unknown possibilities based on current conditions.

Today weather and climate forecasting has become something of a popular novelty. As early as 1812 Napoleon in Moscow was seen studying what scold be seen as some of the very first ever weather statistics relative to the anticipation of cold climate conditions.

By the Second World War weather forecasting was seen to be limited to the study initiated by meteorologists and weather forecasters who plotted and monitored specific weather systems on weather maps on a daily basis guided by high altitude winds until their gradual decay or merger within another system.

Specific forecasts in advance of two to three days could only be made in the event of a high pressure system or anticyclone which would settle over a specific region monitored.

With the development of more scientifically advanced methods of weather forecasting there arouse several additional consequences which had an impact on weather forecasts.

One of the significant effects observed with respect to weather forecasting and scientific development has been the systematic and continuous research done regarding making weather predictions and forecasting.

This rapid development was effectively used to summarize almost all of the available and useful knowledge concerning weather forecasting into what is referred today as the 140 Principles of Forecasting. These specific principles have been accurately based on detailed studies carried out to compare various methods thus determining the ones which have been categorically seen to provide the most accurate results within specified situations. The end result were seen and categorized as what could be referred to as evidence-based principles.

Based on a review of new evidence, some of the basic principles were evaluated with the principles of weather forecasting published by Armstrong in 2006. Further in 2007 Green and Armstrong in an attempted evaluation discovered 89 out of the 140 principles relative to weather forecasting to be in violation of specific weather forecasting procedures. As a result both authors came to the conclusion that the previous scientific forecast made should be reduced to the personal and inconclusive opinions of the scientist involved in the research.

Today with the event of decisions based on public policy with respect to climate change conclusions are usually finalized by climatic experts when they tend to agree. However it has been observed that many of the so called climate forecasts made by these experts have been completely inaccurate such as the ones made with respect to the ice age coming in the 1970’s.